Reading Tiger Woods’ Masters success through the (score)cards

Are there patterns in his scoring by hole, by round, by pin position, by tee time that offer a glimpse into what to expect of Tiger Woods this week?

Woods often has talked about his experience and familiarity with Augusta National and how that plays into how he approaches each hole.

“I don't need to go after every single flag,” Woods said after the third round in 2019. “Just put the ball in the correct spots so I can have gettable looks and gettable putts.”

TIGER SCORECARDS: What will Woods shoot based on past Masters scores?

Sure the weather, tee times, injuries, swing changes, poor play, mood, pin placements all change. But Woods’ strategy to play each to put himself into a position for makeable putts doesn’t.

These cards show his performance over time, by category.

And Woods’ performance has been a model of consistency and success at the Augusta National over the years ... 5 wins, 14 top-10 finishes, no missed cuts as a professional. And yet his game has changed over that time — both through reinventing his swing, overcoming injuries to his knees and back and improving as a golfer.

Don’t bet on early success

With a fall Masters Tournament in 2020, you just never know. Don’t, however, expect him to come out hot. He has only birdied the first hole in an opening round once in his career.

Over the first seven holes in the opening round, Woods has more career bogeys than 

birdies on each of those holes.

“I have not historically started off well here,” Woods said Tuesday about his opening rounds. “I think the times I have shot 70 in that first round, I've gone on to win a few of them.”

Four of the six times he opened with a 70, he won the green jacket.

But isn’t he starting Thursday on No. 10?

Photos: Tiger's Wednesday Practice

Yes, but just like on the front, he struggles with the opening holes on the back nine the first day.

He has made only three birdies on No. 10 in the opening round, and never carded a birdie on No. 11 in the first round, either, making par 77 percent of the time and bogey the rest.

It is on No. 13 that Woods turns his opening round around most years, making birdie in 12 of his 22 starts.

Does the round really make a difference?

Woods’ explanation on his opening round struggles indicates so, as does the data.

"The second and thirds round were usually where I made my hay and got myself back into the event or taken the lead in the event,“ Woods said. ”Hopefully this year will be a little different and I can shoot a little better score and get off to a better start.“

Woods has started his day on the back nine twice to complete rounds. In 2003, he started the third round on No. 10 after barely making the cut.

That year, he birdied No. 10 and made a 50-foot birdie on 11 on the way to a his third-round 66 to put himself back in contention. He finished third behind champion Mike Weir.

In rounds two and three, he birdies Nos. 2 and 3 more often. He makes birdies consistently on the par 5s. And in the years he lowers his scores on Nos. 3 and 7 in the third round, he finishes in the top 10.

Tiger Scorecards: What will Woods shoot based on past Masters scores?

We've analyzed Tiger Woods’ past scoring performance at the Masters Tournament to offer clues on how he might score the next time out. Check out his scorecards here.