Michaux: Sunday is a psychology experiment

The Masters has basically turned into a four-man, 18-hole psychology experiment – and each test subject is trying to plant his own seeds of doubt and/or confidence.

There’s the outsider – Charley Hoffman – who thinks he can sneak up from the fourth position while everybody focuses on the superstars all around him.

“Hopefully a few putts drop in and I can put a little pressure on the guys up top,” Hoffman said.

There’s the guy with three green jackets already – Phil Mickelson – sounding like Tom Sawyer painting the picket fence as he tries to convince everyone that the best place to be isn’t in the final pairing.

“I think it’s much more difficult to follow than it is to lead,” Mickelson said after getting bumped out of the last group.

There’s the Englishman – Justin Rose – who rallied with five birdies in his last six holes to pass Mickelson with a chance to play the role of Nick Faldo to Jordan Spieth’s Greg Norman in the Sunday heat.

“That’s a perfect case study for what will be my game plan tomorrow,” Rose said.

Then there’s Spieth, the guy toppling records in wire-to-wire fashion who wants to believe that a four-shot lead is as good as the seven-shot gap he enjoyed before the final two shaky holes Saturday. Spieth contends it doesn’t matter who is playing beside him.

“I would have enjoyed playing with Phil,” said the 21-year-old who’s never NOT been in the lead on a Sunday in Augusta. “I played with Justin last week, so that’s nice. Wouldn’t have made much of a difference to me. Just maybe would have been a little bit louder (with Mickelson).”

Even the longshots got into the psychological seed-sowing. Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy may be 10 shots behind in fifth place, but the four-time Masters champ wasn’t shy about offering negative scenarios in case Spieth inadvertently stumbles upon Woods’ quotes waiting to tee off late in the afternoon.

“You saw what happened in ’96,” Woods said of the Norman meltdown from six up. “You saw what happened with Rory in ’11. You never know around this golf course. Anything can happen.”

It didn’t look like anything other than a Spieth coronation walk was possible for most of Saturday. The young Texan seemed unflappable, making seven birdies including back-to-back on 15 and 16 to reach the 18-under mark that Woods established as the all-time record in his historic 1997 victory. He was seven shots clear at that point.

But against his better judgment, Spieth hit driver off the 17th tee and put himself in the stress position of chasing from bad spots and ended up with a double bogey.

If not for a gutsy flop shot from the worst place he could have put himself behind the 18th green, he could have seen his lead shrink even more.

“Obviously would have liked to have finished the round a little bit better, but also could have been worse and very pleased with that up and down on 18 that may have been a 1-in-5,” Spieth said.

That late stumble opened the door for some Sunday drama. And each principle character wants to believe he is in the best place.

“There’s a mental difference,” Rose said of a four- vs. six-shot deficit. “A birdie and bogey, which happens a lot on tour, and then you’re within two. It puts you in touch. … Four is better than six.”

Mickelson was storming up the board and was poised to be Spieth’s wingman after an unlikely 41-foot putt on the 16th hole fell in the back door and lifted him to 12-under. But after an ugly bogey at 17 and a missed 10-footer for birdie on 18, he swears he’s exactly where he wants to be.

“I think in 2011 when I was in the final group watching (Louis) Oosthuizen and Bubba Watson in front of me make birdies, it was a lot harder to follow suit,” Mickelson said. “And I was hoping to be the group in front and if I can start posting some birdies, I think it’s much more difficult to follow than it is to lead.”

Rose isn’t buying that. While the 2013 U.S. Open champion has never played in the final group of a major, he was thrilled to get the chance after holing a 20-foot birdie on the last.

“Given the choice, you’d want to be in the last group,” Rose said. “You want to be seeing what you’re up against. You want to feel the atmosphere. You want to get a look at how the guys play next to you, especially when you get to 12, 13, 14, 15 on the back nine. If you’re within one or two, you know if you have to chase or if you can still be patient, whereas if you’re in the group in front, you don’t know what the leader is going to do. You’ve got to maybe take a shot on because you think they are going to hit a good shot. In hindsight, maybe you didn’t need to take on a specific shot. So I think it’s always an advantage to be in the final group.”

Spieth has the advantage of having been there last year.

“There’s going to be roars,” he said. “Phil is going to have a lot of roars in front. Obviously a few groups up I think is Tiger and Rory … you’re going to hear something there. But especially in the group in front of us, everyone loves Phil. Why wouldn’t you love Phil? And he’s going to make some noise and he’s going to make a run.”

Spieth, however, wouldn’t trade his position for anything. A year ago as a Masters rookie, he opened a two-shot lead on 2012 champion Bubba Watson by the eighth tee, but he saw how it could disappear quickly in a four-shot swing over the next two holes.

“I can’t rely on the putter that much to save me with two major champions right behind,” he said. “They are going to bring their game and I’ve got to make … I’ve got to have a relatively stress-free round going. When I say that, I mean give myself some tap-in pars and not have to make so many putts.”

However the psychology plays out Sunday, there’s only one certainty. The guy getting the green jacket will have had to earn it.

“If I win or Jordan wins or Phil wins,” said Rose, “whoever of us wins it will be the guy who hits clutch shots under pressure.”